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Add grounded edge-propagation spec (task #50): core algorithm, proof harness, gated integration patches
El SDK CI - dev / build-and-test (pull_request) Failing after 14m31s
El SDK CI - dev / build-and-test (pull_request) Failing after 14m31s
LTP/LTD-style belief grounding propagated along graph edges, with union-find independence-guarded corroboration. Package: core C algorithm (gep_core.h), a self-contained deterministic proof harness with recorded output, staged runtime integration, and gated .el patches for the beat hook and HTTP route. Per the author's own LEDGER.md: built + proven on a clone, GATED pending the engine/HNSW cutover — not wired into the live beat or routes. Preserved here as a spec/reference artifact, not a request to merge into the live path.
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GROUNDED EDGE-PROPAGATION — PROOF LEDGER (task #50)
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constants: BASE=0.10 LIKELY_MIN=0.34 GROUNDED_MIN=0.66 N_MIN=3 THETA=0.30 D=0.5
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=== SCENARIO A — STRENGTHEN: convergent independent corroboration ===
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seed: conjecture has NO grounding events; corroborators pre-grounded.
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conjecture standing=0.1000 band=conjecture events=0 subthresh=0
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beat 1 (t=+0s) 3 independent grounded corroborators appear
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incident_edges=3 pos_mass=0.4050 (n_indep=3) neg_mass=0.0000 (n_indep=0) THETA=0.30 N_MIN=3
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-> LTP (strengthen) standing 0.1000 (conjecture) -> 0.4842 (likely) [GRADUATED]
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beat 2 (t=+60s) neighborhood grows to 5 corroborators
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incident_edges=5 pos_mass=0.6750 (n_indep=5) neg_mass=0.0000 (n_indep=0) THETA=0.30 N_MIN=3
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-> LTP (strengthen) standing 0.1496 (conjecture) -> 0.7379 (grounded) [GRADUATED]
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beat 3 (t=+120s) support sustained (5)
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incident_edges=5 pos_mass=0.6750 (n_indep=5) neg_mass=0.0000 (n_indep=0) THETA=0.30 N_MIN=3
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-> LTP (strengthen) standing 0.2110 (conjecture) -> 0.7993 (grounded) [GRADUATED]
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beat 4 (t=+720s) corroboration withdrawn (+10min)
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incident_edges=0 pos_mass=0.0000 (n_indep=0) neg_mass=0.0000 (n_indep=0) THETA=0.30 N_MIN=3
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-> isolated (no edges) standing 0.1612 (conjecture) -> 0.1612 (conjecture)
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beat 5 (t=+3600s) still withdrawn (+1h)
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incident_edges=0 pos_mass=0.0000 (n_indep=0) neg_mass=0.0000 (n_indep=0) THETA=0.30 N_MIN=3
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-> isolated (no edges) standing 0.1263 (conjecture) -> 0.1263 (conjecture)
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beat 6 (t=+14400s) still withdrawn (+4h)
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incident_edges=0 pos_mass=0.0000 (n_indep=0) neg_mass=0.0000 (n_indep=0) THETA=0.30 N_MIN=3
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-> isolated (no edges) standing 0.1130 (conjecture) -> 0.1130 (conjecture)
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RESULT: grounding grew automatically past threshold and graduated,
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then relaxed once the independent support stopped — living,
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not a latched flag.
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=== SCENARIO B — DECAY: convergent independent CONTRADICTION ===
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seed: belief pre-grounded by a strong prior LTP event.
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belief standing=0.9500 band=grounded events=1 subthresh=0
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beat 1 (t=+0s) 3 independent contradictions
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incident_edges=3 pos_mass=0.0000 (n_indep=0) neg_mass=0.5400 (n_indep=3) THETA=0.30 N_MIN=3
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-> LTD (decay) standing 0.9500 (grounded) -> 0.4570 (likely) [DEMOTED]
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beat 2 (t=+60s) contradiction broadens to 5
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incident_edges=5 pos_mass=0.0000 (n_indep=0) neg_mass=0.9000 (n_indep=5) THETA=0.30 N_MIN=3
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-> LTD (decay) standing 0.1461 (conjecture) -> 0.0000 (conjecture)
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beat 3 (t=+120s) contradiction sustained (5)
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incident_edges=5 pos_mass=0.0000 (n_indep=0) neg_mass=0.9000 (n_indep=5) THETA=0.30 N_MIN=3
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-> LTD (decay) standing 0.0401 (conjecture) -> 0.0000 (conjecture)
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beat 4 (t=+180s) contradiction sustained (5)
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incident_edges=5 pos_mass=0.0000 (n_indep=0) neg_mass=0.9000 (n_indep=5) THETA=0.30 N_MIN=3
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-> LTD (decay) standing 0.0000 (conjecture) -> 0.0000 (conjecture)
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RESULT: grounding decayed grounded->likely->conjecture under
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convergent independent contradiction. The door never shut
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on the belief; its history is retained (events keep growing).
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=== SCENARIO C — INDEPENDENCE GUARD (the load-bearing property) ===
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Both sub-cases: N=5 corroborators, edge weight 0.30, corroborator
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standing ~0.90. ONLY difference: whether the 5 are independent.
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-- C1: 5 DISTINCT independent corroborators --
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conjecture standing=0.1000 band=conjecture events=0 subthresh=0
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beat 1 (t=+0s) 5 independent corroborators (no inter-links)
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incident_edges=5 pos_mass=1.3500 (n_indep=5) neg_mass=0.0000 (n_indep=0) THETA=0.30 N_MIN=3
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-> LTP (strengthen) standing 0.1000 (conjecture) -> 0.9741 (grounded) [GRADUATED]
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-- C2: 5 corroborators, but mutually-linked (echo of ONE source) --
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conjecture standing=0.1000 band=conjecture events=0 subthresh=0
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beat 1 (t=+0s) 5 echoed (mutually-linked) corroborators
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incident_edges=5 pos_mass=0.2700 (n_indep=1) neg_mass=0.0000 (n_indep=0) THETA=0.30 N_MIN=3
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-> sub-threshold (no shift) standing 0.1000 (conjecture) -> 0.1000 (conjecture)
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-- C3: ONE corroborator, reached by 5 parallel edges --
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conjecture standing=0.1000 band=conjecture events=0 subthresh=0
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beat 1 (t=+0s) same node, 5 parallel edges
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incident_edges=5 pos_mass=0.2700 (n_indep=1) neg_mass=0.0000 (n_indep=0) THETA=0.30 N_MIN=3
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-> sub-threshold (no shift) standing 0.1000 (conjecture) -> 0.1000 (conjecture)
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RESULT: identical raw fan-in (5) and mass inputs; C1 grounds because
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the corroboration is INDEPENDENT (5 components), C2/C3 do not
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because it collapses to ONE source. Circular self-reinforcement
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cannot manufacture grounding.
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DONE.
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