GROUNDED EDGE-PROPAGATION — PROOF LEDGER (task #50)
constants: BASE=0.10 LIKELY_MIN=0.34 GROUNDED_MIN=0.66 N_MIN=3 THETA=0.30 D=0.5

=== SCENARIO A — STRENGTHEN: convergent independent corroboration ===
  seed: conjecture has NO grounding events; corroborators pre-grounded.
    conjecture     standing=0.1000  band=conjecture  events=0  subthresh=0
  beat 1  (t=+0s)  3 independent grounded corroborators appear
    incident_edges=3  pos_mass=0.4050 (n_indep=3)  neg_mass=0.0000 (n_indep=0)  THETA=0.30  N_MIN=3
    -> LTP  (strengthen)           standing 0.1000 (conjecture) -> 0.4842 (likely)   [GRADUATED]
  beat 2  (t=+60s)  neighborhood grows to 5 corroborators
    incident_edges=5  pos_mass=0.6750 (n_indep=5)  neg_mass=0.0000 (n_indep=0)  THETA=0.30  N_MIN=3
    -> LTP  (strengthen)           standing 0.1496 (conjecture) -> 0.7379 (grounded)   [GRADUATED]
  beat 3  (t=+120s)  support sustained (5)
    incident_edges=5  pos_mass=0.6750 (n_indep=5)  neg_mass=0.0000 (n_indep=0)  THETA=0.30  N_MIN=3
    -> LTP  (strengthen)           standing 0.2110 (conjecture) -> 0.7993 (grounded)   [GRADUATED]
  beat 4  (t=+720s)  corroboration withdrawn (+10min)
    incident_edges=0  pos_mass=0.0000 (n_indep=0)  neg_mass=0.0000 (n_indep=0)  THETA=0.30  N_MIN=3
    -> isolated (no edges)         standing 0.1612 (conjecture) -> 0.1612 (conjecture)
  beat 5  (t=+3600s)  still withdrawn (+1h)
    incident_edges=0  pos_mass=0.0000 (n_indep=0)  neg_mass=0.0000 (n_indep=0)  THETA=0.30  N_MIN=3
    -> isolated (no edges)         standing 0.1263 (conjecture) -> 0.1263 (conjecture)
  beat 6  (t=+14400s)  still withdrawn (+4h)
    incident_edges=0  pos_mass=0.0000 (n_indep=0)  neg_mass=0.0000 (n_indep=0)  THETA=0.30  N_MIN=3
    -> isolated (no edges)         standing 0.1130 (conjecture) -> 0.1130 (conjecture)
  RESULT: grounding grew automatically past threshold and graduated,
          then relaxed once the independent support stopped — living,
          not a latched flag.

=== SCENARIO B — DECAY: convergent independent CONTRADICTION ===
  seed: belief pre-grounded by a strong prior LTP event.
    belief         standing=0.9500  band=grounded    events=1  subthresh=0
  beat 1  (t=+0s)  3 independent contradictions
    incident_edges=3  pos_mass=0.0000 (n_indep=0)  neg_mass=0.5400 (n_indep=3)  THETA=0.30  N_MIN=3
    -> LTD  (decay)                standing 0.9500 (grounded) -> 0.4570 (likely)   [DEMOTED]
  beat 2  (t=+60s)  contradiction broadens to 5
    incident_edges=5  pos_mass=0.0000 (n_indep=0)  neg_mass=0.9000 (n_indep=5)  THETA=0.30  N_MIN=3
    -> LTD  (decay)                standing 0.1461 (conjecture) -> 0.0000 (conjecture)
  beat 3  (t=+120s)  contradiction sustained (5)
    incident_edges=5  pos_mass=0.0000 (n_indep=0)  neg_mass=0.9000 (n_indep=5)  THETA=0.30  N_MIN=3
    -> LTD  (decay)                standing 0.0401 (conjecture) -> 0.0000 (conjecture)
  beat 4  (t=+180s)  contradiction sustained (5)
    incident_edges=5  pos_mass=0.0000 (n_indep=0)  neg_mass=0.9000 (n_indep=5)  THETA=0.30  N_MIN=3
    -> LTD  (decay)                standing 0.0000 (conjecture) -> 0.0000 (conjecture)
  RESULT: grounding decayed grounded->likely->conjecture under
          convergent independent contradiction. The door never shut
          on the belief; its history is retained (events keep growing).

=== SCENARIO C — INDEPENDENCE GUARD (the load-bearing property) ===
  Both sub-cases: N=5 corroborators, edge weight 0.30, corroborator
  standing ~0.90. ONLY difference: whether the 5 are independent.

  -- C1: 5 DISTINCT independent corroborators --
    conjecture     standing=0.1000  band=conjecture  events=0  subthresh=0
  beat 1  (t=+0s)  5 independent corroborators (no inter-links)
    incident_edges=5  pos_mass=1.3500 (n_indep=5)  neg_mass=0.0000 (n_indep=0)  THETA=0.30  N_MIN=3
    -> LTP  (strengthen)           standing 0.1000 (conjecture) -> 0.9741 (grounded)   [GRADUATED]

  -- C2: 5 corroborators, but mutually-linked (echo of ONE source) --
    conjecture     standing=0.1000  band=conjecture  events=0  subthresh=0
  beat 1  (t=+0s)  5 echoed (mutually-linked) corroborators
    incident_edges=5  pos_mass=0.2700 (n_indep=1)  neg_mass=0.0000 (n_indep=0)  THETA=0.30  N_MIN=3
    -> sub-threshold (no shift)    standing 0.1000 (conjecture) -> 0.1000 (conjecture)

  -- C3: ONE corroborator, reached by 5 parallel edges --
    conjecture     standing=0.1000  band=conjecture  events=0  subthresh=0
  beat 1  (t=+0s)  same node, 5 parallel edges
    incident_edges=5  pos_mass=0.2700 (n_indep=1)  neg_mass=0.0000 (n_indep=0)  THETA=0.30  N_MIN=3
    -> sub-threshold (no shift)    standing 0.1000 (conjecture) -> 0.1000 (conjecture)

  RESULT: identical raw fan-in (5) and mass inputs; C1 grounds because
          the corroboration is INDEPENDENT (5 components), C2/C3 do not
          because it collapses to ONE source. Circular self-reinforcement
          cannot manufacture grounding.

DONE.