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neuron/tools/retrieval-eval/comparison-main-vs-stack-ext.json
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Tim Lingo 77e3c5fa26 test(retrieval): a held-out gold set, and the first out-of-sample number
Iteration 7 measured this harness's own ceiling at +3 gross / +1 net against a
decision floor of 6. An instrument whose ceiling sits below its floor cannot
certify or refute anything, so the gold set — not the retriever — was the
blocker. This iteration builds no retrieval mechanism; it fixes the instrument
and uses it once.

extend_gold_set.py appends 37 queries (q39-q75) WITHOUT touching q01-q38, so
every committed baseline and per-query id stays comparable. 30 held-out
paraphrases: targets sampled mechanically (seed 8080) from addressable
500-2600 char nodes outside the original answer space and outside any duplicate
cluster; queries authored from the node body alone, before any retrieval was
run, and each one re-proved at build time to share ZERO content words with its
target. 7 extra nonsense controls, fully mechanical.

Why this was needed: the original 13 paraphrase and 6 associative queries share
ONE answer space — the 13 `Self - Values (grounded)` children. 19 of 35 scored
queries tested retrieval against a single 13-node neighbourhood.

FIRST OUT-OF-SAMPLE RESULT (main vs the accumulated stack, embedded corpus):
  held-out only : +5 / -0, p=0.0625 — one query short of the floor, NOT-SHOWN
  original 38   : +15 / -0
  full 75       : +20 / -0, p=0.0000, latency 0.46x
In-sample paraphrase 61.5% vs out-of-sample 16.7%: generalisation is real,
directional and 3.7x weaker than the headline number suggested.

Also recorded: 47.4% of this corpus is redundant and ONE record accounts for
46.6% of all 78,768 nodes (36,737 byte-identical copies under distinct ids).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-08-07 17:16:42 -05:00

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{
"baseline": "main-ext",
"candidate": "stack-ext",
"n_shared_queries": 75,
"fixed_by_candidate": [
"q10",
"q15",
"q16",
"q18",
"q19",
"q20",
"q21",
"q22",
"q26",
"q27",
"q28",
"q29",
"q31",
"q35",
"q37",
"q40",
"q44",
"q48",
"q49",
"q50"
],
"broken_by_candidate": [],
"discordant": 20,
"net_queries": 20,
"mcnemar_exact_p": 1.9073486328125e-06,
"min_detectable_swing_queries": 6,
"observed_run_to_run_drift_queries": 0,
"noise_floor_queries": 6,
"verdict": "candidate better",
"baseline_aggregate": {
"n_queries": 75,
"n_scored": 65,
"hit@5": 0.18461538461538463,
"recall@5": 0.14510073260073258,
"recall@10": 0.1794871794871795,
"precision@5": 0.06461538461538462,
"mrr@10": 0.15847985347985344,
"nonsense_clean": "9/10",
"superseded_outranks": "1/3",
"latency_ms_p50": 1380.2,
"latency_ms_p95": 2293.8,
"latency_ms_max": 2879.1,
"errors": 0,
"by_category": {
"associative": {
"n": 6,
"hit@5": 0.0,
"recall@5": 0.0,
"recall@10": 0.0,
"mrr@10": 0.0
},
"exact_rare": {
"n": 6,
"hit@5": 1.0,
"recall@5": 1.0,
"recall@10": 1.0,
"mrr@10": 1.0
},
"heldout_paraphrase": {
"n": 30,
"hit@5": 0.0,
"recall@5": 0.0,
"recall@10": 0.0,
"mrr@10": 0.0
},
"nonsense": {
"n": 10,
"clean": 9,
"avg_false_positives": 1.0
},
"paraphrase": {
"n": 13,
"hit@5": 0.0,
"recall@5": 0.0,
"recall@10": 0.0,
"mrr@10": 0.0
},
"phrase": {
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"recall@5": 0.4902210884353741,
"recall@10": 0.6666666666666666,
"mrr@10": 0.5965986394557822
},
"superseded": {
"n": 3,
"hit@5": 0.0,
"recall@5": 0.0,
"recall@10": 0.3333333333333333,
"mrr@10": 0.041666666666666664,
"outranks": 1
}
}
},
"candidate_aggregate": {
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"n_scored": 65,
"hit@5": 0.47692307692307695,
"recall@5": 0.3750415183107491,
"recall@10": 0.45561340369032677,
"precision@5": 0.12307692307692313,
"mrr@10": 0.3055555555555555,
"nonsense_clean": "10/10",
"superseded_outranks": "2/3",
"latency_ms_p50": 640.9,
"latency_ms_p95": 1011.1,
"latency_ms_max": 1190.3,
"errors": 0,
"by_category": {
"associative": {
"n": 6,
"hit@5": 0.6666666666666666,
"recall@5": 0.08857808857808858,
"recall@10": 0.23310023310023312,
"mrr@10": 0.25
},
"exact_rare": {
"n": 6,
"hit@5": 1.0,
"recall@5": 1.0,
"recall@10": 1.0,
"mrr@10": 1.0
},
"heldout_paraphrase": {
"n": 30,
"hit@5": 0.16666666666666666,
"recall@5": 0.16666666666666666,
"recall@10": 0.26666666666666666,
"mrr@10": 0.0762037037037037
},
"nonsense": {
"n": 10,
"clean": 10,
"avg_false_positives": 0.0
},
"paraphrase": {
"n": 13,
"hit@5": 0.6153846153846154,
"recall@5": 0.6153846153846154,
"recall@10": 0.6153846153846154,
"mrr@10": 0.2846153846153846
},
"phrase": {
"n": 7,
"hit@5": 1.0,
"recall@5": 0.5494614512471656,
"recall@10": 0.6023242630385487,
"mrr@10": 0.8214285714285714
},
"superseded": {
"n": 3,
"hit@5": 0.3333333333333333,
"recall@5": 0.3333333333333333,
"recall@10": 0.6666666666666666,
"mrr@10": 0.20833333333333334,
"outranks": 2
}
}
},
"repeat_variance": {}
}